GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – The World Trade Organization has increased its projection for global merchandise trade growth in 2026 to 3.9 percent. This marks a significant rise from the 1.9 percent estimate issued in March. The WTO attributed the upward revision to stronger trade performance in the first half, supply chain adaptations, and increased investment in artificial intelligence. Despite notable disruptions affecting energy, transport, and fertilizer markets, merchandise trade volume expanded by 3.5 percent in the first six months of 2026. The organization now anticipates merchandise trade growth of 4.1 percent for 2027.
A major contributor to merchandise trade growth during the initial half of 2026 was demand driven by artificial intelligence. Goods that enable AI, such as semiconductors and servers, made up 47 percent of global merchandise trade expansion. Trade in these products surged 67 percent compared to the previous year. The WTO also indicated that global spending on AI infrastructure is expected to grow by at least 30 percent in 2026. While other sectors faced disruptions from conflicts and transportation constraints, robust demand for computing hardware played a vital role in supporting trade flows.
Supply chains worldwide have also adjusted to pressures across key commodities and shipping markets. Crude oil exports from the Middle East decreased roughly 24 percent during the first half of 2026. Meanwhile, liquefied natural gas exports from the region declined by 47 percent over the same period. Nevertheless, increased shipments from alternative suppliers helped limit the global decrease in crude oil exports to around 6 percent. LNG exports globally fell just 1 percent. Additionally, container throughput across the globe increased by 3.9 percent through July, as trade routes shifted through alternative ports and corridors.
AI-enabled goods bolster worldwide merchandise trade
This positive outlook for goods contrasts with more subdued expectations for commercial services trade. The WTO downgraded its 2026 forecast for services trade volume growth from 4.8 percent in March to 3.3 percent. Disruptions in the Middle East contributed to increased pressure on transport and international travel, leading to a 0.8 percent decline in international tourist arrivals in the second quarter. Overall, arrivals for the first half of the year increased by a mere 0.4 percent. Growth in travel expenditures also slowed significantly between the two quarters.
Despite the setbacks in travel and transportation, other service sectors showed stronger performance. Computer services exports increased by 18 percent in the first quarter compared to a year earlier, with second-quarter growth estimated at 12 percent. Financial services exports also rose by 14 percent year-on-year during the second quarter. The WTO projects a 6.4 percent growth in commercial services trade volume for 2027 and expects global GDP to expand by 2.6 percent in 2026 and by 2.9 percent in 2027.
Trade growth varies significantly across regions
Different regions are expected to show varied merchandise trade growth rates in 2026. The WTO predicts Asia will lead with a 9.9 percent increase in exports. North America is forecast to grow exports by 5.7 percent, while Africa is expected to see a 5.6 percent rise. South America’s exports are projected to increase by 3.4 percent, but Europe is anticipated to experience a slight decline of 0.1 percent. The Middle East faces the steepest downturn, with merchandise exports forecast to fall by 17.2 percent for the year.
Import growth also exhibits considerable regional disparities. Asia is expected to see merchandise import expansion of 9.5 percent, whereas Africa’s imports are projected to increase by 8.9 percent. North American imports are forecast to grow by 1.4 percent, with Europe’s imports expected to rise by 0.5 percent. Conversely, merchandise imports into the Middle East are predicted to decrease by 15.4 percent. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala highlighted that the latest figures demonstrate trade resilience but also underline the unequal exposure to economic and geopolitical disruptions across regions.