ROME / RankWire.AI / – The Food and Agriculture Organization has forecasted global cereal production for 2026 at 2.98 billion tonnes, marking a 2% decrease compared to last year’s record-setting output. Despite this decline, the total is still expected to rank as the second-largest harvest ever. The current estimate is 3.4 million tonnes lower than the projection made in July. This annual reduction of 61.1 million tonnes represents the most significant year-on-year drop since 2018.
Worldwide maize production is now projected at 1.309 billion tonnes after weaker crop prospects led to a downward revision from earlier estimates. Excessive summer heat and drought conditions have impacted yields across key European Union regions, notably France and Poland. Official estimates also prompted downward adjustments for India and Paraguay. However, better-than-anticipated yields in Argentina and Brazil helped offset some of these reductions, with both nations expected to record well-above-average maize output in 2026.
Forecasts for world wheat production now stand at 810.7 million tonnes, representing an increase of 4.2 million tonnes from previous estimates. Improved yield expectations in Canada and Morocco raised projections by roughly 1.5 million tonnes each. Likewise, estimates for Russia and Ukraine have been revised upward, while expectations for the European Union and the United Kingdom have been lowered due to dry weather conditions. Despite the upward adjustments, global wheat production is still expected to fall 3.8% short of 2025 and remains the second-largest crop on record.
Maize declines lead to overall reduction in global cereal forecasts
For the 2026/27 season, world rice production is projected at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis, reflecting a 1.9% decrease from the revised record set in 2025/26. Favorable yields from Myanmar and strong main-crop harvests in Sri Lanka contributed to this latest estimate. These gains helped counterbalance reductions in rice output for China, the Philippines, and the United States, where plantings have fallen to multi-decade lows.
The FAO anticipates global cereal consumption reaching 2.965 billion tonnes in 2026/27, a modest increase of 0.2% from the previous season. While coarse grain and rice consumption are expected to grow, wheat use is forecast to decline from last season’s high levels. World rice utilization is estimated at 559 million tonnes, driven by population growth and increased food demand. Additionally, feed demand remains a key factor, with barley consumption in China and maize use in the United States playing significant roles.
Global grain inventories stay at historically comfortable levels
Cereal stocks worldwide at the end of the 2027 season are forecasted at 947.2 million tonnes. This figure is 10.7 million tonnes below the previous projection but 1.8 million tonnes higher than opening levels. The stocks-to-use ratio is expected to be 31.6%, slightly lower than the 31.9% recorded in the previous season. Wheat reserves are anticipated to increase in Russia and Ukraine, while lower maize and barley inventories have brought down the overall stock outlook.
Trade in cereals globally for 2026/27 is projected at 509.3 million tonnes, an increase of 1.7 million tonnes from earlier estimates. Despite the rise, this total remains below the record high of 2025/26. The increase is largely driven by stronger maize trade, with Argentina expected to export up to 39 million tonnes. International rice trade for 2026 is forecast at 60.5 million tonnes, with overall rice shipments still 1.9% below the 2025 record.